Matt-+Carbon+Tax+Research

[] = Coal industry slams carbon tax  = 27 September, 2011 [|Andrew Duffy] Thousands of jobs and billions of dollars of investment in coal mines and related businesses are at risk from the carbon tax, according to the Australian Coal Association. ACA chairman John Pegler will address the Clean Energy Future parliamentary inquiry today, arguing the support package offered by the Government is not enough. He said in a statement that allowing for compensation of $1.3 billion, the net cost of the tax would still be $16.9 billion. He also criticised the Government’s job assistance package as being poorly designed. “In our view the Government has underestimated the impact of the carbon tax,” he said. “The $18 billion cost impact of the carbon tax will hit many of Australia’s mines making them uncompetitive on international markets.” “This occurs at a time when the International Monetary Fund is warning that economic growth in our major coal export markets in Asia could be slashed by a third.” The Government says that because most Australian coal mines do not release significant amounts of greenhouse gases they will only have small liabilities under the carbon tax. It said the $1.3 billion Coal Sector Jobs package would provide transitional assistance to help the coal industry reduce its emissions and support jobs. It said it will also provide funding from the Coal Mining Abatement Technology Support Package to help coal mines develop and introduce new technologies to reduce emissions. The Government is still pushing for its $23-a-tonne fixed price on carbon to start on 1 July 2012. It plans for a market-based emissions trading scheme to be introduced in 2015. The aim of both moves is to cut 160 million tonnes of carbon dioxide from te atmosphere by 2012.

[] = Carbon tax 'will cost 4000 coal jobs' = Independent modelling commissioned by the Australian Coal Association warns that the number of early mine closures could reach 18 within nine years and result in Australia forgoing coal sales of $22 billion from existing mines over the next decade. The ACIL Tasman modelling projects that carbon pricing could greatly reduce the expected boost to the economy from the resources boom as potential mines do not go ahead. ACIL Tasman estimates that between 22,700 and 31,020 man-years of jobs will be forgone as a result of new projects not proceeding and between $23bn and $45bn in export earnings will be forgone in the decade to 2021-22. "Conservative estimates of employment losses from applying emissions pricing to potential new coalmining developments would be elimination of 25-37 per cent of potential new jobs," the modelling report says. The modelling of the black coal industry, which was completed on the assumption the coal industry would not receive assistance under the carbon package, comes as the coal union steps up pressure on the government's multi-party climate change committee to agree to a compensation package at least matching the $1.5bn in assistance promised to "gassy mines" as part of Kevin Rudd's carbon pollution reduction scheme. The release of the modelling is likely to fuel tensions between the government, which favours a coal assistance package, and the Greens, who have expressed public hostility to the coal industry. Australian Coal Association executive director Ralph Hillman said the ACIL Tasman modelling clearly showed coalmines could close if the government persisted with its plans for a carbon tax. "The ACA supports putting a price on carbon, but not one that causes Australian mines to close and shift production to other countries with no reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions," Mr Hillman said. He called for two changes to the scheme, which he said could avoid mine closures and job losses: that the government introduce a carbon price by phased-in auctioning of permits at a sufficiently low level to maintain the competitiveness of the sector; and that a carbon tax should be applied to fugitive emissions from coalmines (greenhouse gases released in the mining process) only when Australia's major competitors did so. A spokesman for Climate Change Minister Greg Combet said the survey commissioned by the Australian Coal Association was inaccurate in assuming no assistance would be provided to the coal industry. "The government recognises the coal industry is a vital part of our economy," he said. "The vast majority of Australia's coalmining industry is not emissions-intensive and will not face materially increased costs under a carbon price." Mr Combet said the government recognised there were a small number of gassy underground mines that had high fugitive methane emissions and would face increased costs. "We are consulting the industry closely on the assistance measures for strongly affected coalmining operations, and remain committed to assuring the competitiveness of our mining sector," he said. ACIL Tasman said high-volume, low-margin mines that were more distant from export terminals were potentially in greatest jeopardy from emissions pricing. The modelling report says the estimates of job cuts in existing mines were "conservative" and warns the job cuts could be deeper than projected. By 2014-15, the study says, eight mines could have closed and coal production could have declined by 18.7 per cent, with an annual decline in coal sales revenue from existing mines of $2bn. This would result in an employment reduction of 4085 jobs, including 2939 in NSW and 1146 in Queensland, with an impact on the overall economy of 12,255 jobs. <span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 13px;">"These estimates include only losses from premature mine closures," ACIL Tasman says. "They do not include employment losses from operating economies made within surviving mines." <span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 13px;">While assistance has been targeted at mines with high fugitive emissions, ACIL Tasman says mines and potential developments affected by emissions pricing are those with lower profitability and are not necessarily those mines producing lower-value thermal coal or which are regarded as gassy (emissions of more than 0.1 tonne of CO2 per tonne of saleable production). <span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 13px;">ACIL Tasman economist Ken Willett said 82 mines were surveyed, representing more than 85 per cent of black coal production in NSW and Queensland. Commercially sensitive data was obtained from mine companies about their operations. This included potential emissions costs, fuel use, electricity use and transport and other handling costs. <span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 13px;">The survey of potential developments collected information on 51 potential projects in NSW and Queensland. <span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 13px;">He said ACIL Tasman had used its own modelling and had forecast future coal prices based on ABARE's projections and those of 13 independent analysts. <span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 13px;">Based on ACIL Tasman's estimates, thermal coal prices are expected to peak at $121 a tonne and coking coal at $249 a tonne in 2011-12, with prices gradually declining over the course of the decade to $87 a tonne for thermal coal and $170 a tonne for coking coal by 2023-24. <span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 13px;">The modelling was based on no assistance being provided to the coal industry and a carbon tax starting from $20 a tonne, rising at a real rate of 4 per cent a year. It would then be followed by a transition to emissions permit trading. Permit prices were assumed to rise at 4 per cent a year. <span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 13px;">Of the projected job losses at existing mines, Mr Hillman said: "These are real jobs, supporting real families in regional Australia. The carbon tax will put thousands of jobs at risk and push billions of investment dollars in new mining developments offshore to our competitors. <span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 13px;">"The most frustrating part is that despite losing coalmining jobs and investment, global greenhouse gas emissions could actually rise as coal is mined from countries with more emissions-intensive and less energy-efficient coal." <span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 13px;">He said 18 mines were projected to close in the first nine years of the carbon price and the cost of the carbon price to Australian mines was expected to be about $18bn over the same period. <span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 13px;">"This is a cost none of our competitors face and reflects the government's failure to seriously address the competitiveness of Australian trade-exposed industries, including coal," he said. <span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 13px;">Construction Forestry Mining and Energy Union national secretary Tony Maher called for an assistance package for the coal industry to address gassy mines, and for abatement technologies to allow mines to cut emissions.
 * <span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 14px;">EXPLOSIVE economic modelling warns that the carbon tax could force eight black coalmines to close, costing nearly 3000 jobs in regional NSW and more than 1100 jobs in Queensland in its first three years. **

[] <span style="color: black; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif';">Specifically, according to the government’s calculation, 4 million households will be better off, 6 million will break even, and around 8 million will be worse off. Realistically the impact on individual families will depend on their income and their spending patterns. <span style="color: black; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif';">Firstly spending: <span style="color: black; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif';">According to the government’s “Clean Energy Future Plan”: <span style="color: black; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif';">• Food is estimated to rise by less than $1 per week for typical households <span style="color: black; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif';">• Electricity costs are expected to rise by around $3.30 per week <span style="color: black; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif';">• An additional $1.50 per week on the average gas bill <span style="color: black; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif';">• Petrol at the bowser should not rise although holiday travel will probably rise as domestic aviation will be liable for the tax.
 * <span style="color: black; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 15px;">How it will impact Families. **